Value Goalie Rankings Update: Hottest/Coldest Goalies, Predictions, and Discrepancies

Hey Everyone! Congrats to all those who are still battling in the fantasy playoffs! I will again be diving into an update on my Value Goalie Rankings. You can find an explanation of the rankings and related constructs (Quality Weeks, Really Bad Weeks, and Star Weeks) here. And the previous updates in GoaliePost Ramblings.

The TL;DR version is that the conventional rankings for goalies in categories leagues are broken. My rankings account for the true value that goalies have contributed to your fantasy teams. These rankings are strictly for categories leagues, and mainly for leagues that count these four Cats (W, GAA, SV%, SO).

I will take dive into the Rankings and point out the discrepancies with Yahoo’s rankings, take a look at the hottest and coldest goalies this past month, and make some predictions for the rest of the season.

So, let’s dive in! Here are the current top 30 goalies through Week 22 (excludes this week’s games):

The full rankings can be found here.

Discrepancies

Let’s revisit the biggest differences in my value rankings to Yahoo’s current rankings. These goalies’ perceived value may be very different to their true value because of the discrepancy:

Sergei Bobrovsky has been the 19th best goalie, quietly moving up the rankings; his Yahoo ranking is 46. His bad stretches (his 4 Really Bad Weeks) were extremely bad, hurting his cumulative stats immensely, but he hasn’t had one of those in over a month. He has an acceptable rate of Quality Weeks (58%) as well as a healthy rate of Star Weeks (27%), providing positive value overall so far. I hope you listened when I told you to buy low last month! This is a perfect example where his true value doesn’t match Yahoo’s rankings. I’d expect his consistent play to continue in the Panther’s playoff push.

Alexandar Georgiev has been the 2nd best goalie this season, still better than his current ranking of 5 in Yahoo. He hasn’t missed a beat this past month and provides consistency on a weekly basis. This can be explained by Georgiev refusing to be bad two nights in a row. Since January 1st, he has followed up a non-Quality Start, with a Quality Start every single time. He should continue his consistent play as Colorado gears up for the playoffs.

Filip Gustavsson has been the 7th best goalie this season, worse than his current Yahoo ranking of 3. There is nothing wrong with Gustavsson, but this is a simple case of Yahoo overvaluing the cumulative stats and not really accounting for the 4 Really Bad Weeks he had in the first half of the season. He has definitely been one of the hottest goalies the last month, but hasn’t provided top 3 season-long value.

Jacob Markstrom has been the 28th best goalie; his Yahoo ranking is 69. He’s been bad, but has had strong play of late and has provided net positive value to his fantasy teams. His Quality Week percentage is very respectable (64%; better than Shesterkin!). It is the Star Weeks that have been missing, though he finally got his first Star Week two weeks ago. He should continue to regress to the mean and improve on his position to finish off the season.

Joonas Korpisalo has been the 21st best goalie; his Yahoo ranking is 53. On Columbus, his 3 Really Bad Weeks were… REALLY BAD and he’s had 0 shutouts, hurting his Yahoo ranking. In the past 4 weeks (3 with Los Angeles), he has put up 4 Quality Weeks. He might not play lights out, but consistency seems to be the new norm for him, especially on a strong Kings team.

After being my perfect example of an inconsistent goalie being overvalued by Yahoo, Ilya Sorokin has finally caught up to his Yahoo Ranking. He hasn’t had a Really Bad Week in the past two months (He must’ve read my displeasure with his early season Really Bad Week%). Throughout the season, he was always overvalued in Yahoo’s rankings by his strong cumulative stats (SV%, GAA,) as he would put up Really Bad Weeks at a higher rate than any other top 20 goalie. Well… Sorokin has been super consistent the past two months and is truly in the top 3. Good job Ilya.

A few other discrepancies:

Carter Hart has been the 26th best goalie; his Yahoo ranking is 44.

Jaroslav Halak has been the 23rd best goalie; his Yahoo ranking is 33.

Ville Husso has been the 43rd best goalie; his Yahoo ranking is 26.

These rankings are descriptive of these goalies’ performances thus far (through week 22) and not predictive of future performance. But you may be able to exploit the perceived values of the goalies mentioned above in a trade if you think they’ll keep up what they’ve done so far.

Hottest Goalies

Alexandar Georgiev (8-2-1, 2.07, .920, 2) has been amazing in the last month. If he has a bad game, he always rebounds the next game. He’s put up 3 Star Weeks and 4 Quality Weeks in the past month.

Marc-Andre Fleury (7-0-0, 2.13, .936, 1) has rebounded strong and is the only other goalie to have put up 3 Star Weeks over the last month along with 4 Quality Weeks.

Akira Schmid (3-1-2, 1.84, 0.930, 1) has continued to provide consistent value for 1 start per week in his backup role. He’s been a top 5 fantasy goalie this past month. He is actually been the 3rd best goalie if you take his Value per fantasy week played. Keep streaming this man while you can!

Frederik Andersen (5-3-0, 2.37, .899) continues to be consistent when healthy. He’s put up 4 straight Quality Weeks and has the 4th best Quality Week rate (84.3%). His cumulative stats seem low, but he hasn’t had a Really Bad Week this month and has provided quality to his fantasy teams every week.

Pheonix Copley (4-1-2, 2.45, .905, 0) and Joonas Korpisalo (4-1-1, 2.49, .913, 0) are providing the Kings the goaltending they need, consistently average. No Really Bad Weeks from either this past month. And Copley even got a Star Week. I’d be happy to have either of these top 25 fantasy goalies on my fantasy team.

Stuart Skinner (9-3-0, 2.78, .907, 0) has taken control of the starting job again in Edmonton. He’s put up 3 out of 4 Quality Weeks this past month. It looks like he’ll continue to get more starts than the inconsistent option in Campbell.

Thatcher Demko (6-2-0, 2.24, .927, 0) has returned! He is an elite goaltender on a bad team. 3 out of 3 Quality weeks for him since his return, providing top 20 value.

Coldest Goalies

Jordan Binnington (1-5-2, 3.98, .887, 0) continues to punish teams who own him in Cats leagues. 3 Really Bad Weeks and no Quality Weeks have ensured his owners have not made their playoffs.

Tristan Jarry (4-4-0, 4.17, .863, 0) has made it very hard to trust him lately. Only 1 Quality week in the last 4 and 3 Really Bad Weeks. Ouch.

Darcy Keumper (4-5-1, 3.07, .899, 0) has dropped in the rankings due to his bad play recently. 2 Really Bad Weeks and 2 Quality weeks. Not the output you’d want from your top goalie.

With Merzlikins out and idle, Kaapo Kahkonen (0-5-2, 4.94, .861, 0) has overtaken him as the worst fantasy goalie this season! Nothing to see here.

Quite a few spot starter backups on this list. It has not a good month to have been streaming goalies.

Predictions

Let’s check in on last month’s predictions. The month prior, I had a respectable record of 1-1-3. Not terrible playing the fools game of predicting goalie.

Igor Shesterkin will have 4 Quality Weeks. (even with a bad start to week 19). He will also have 2 Star Weeks and re-enter the conversation as the league’s best goalie. WRONG. Though I was close here as he had 3 Quality Weeks and 1 Star Week, I can’t take this as a draw as he did put up 1 Really Bad Week.

Ilya Sorokin will continue his up and down play, posting 3 Quality Weeks, 2 of them being Star Weeks, but also 1 Really Bad Week. WRONG. I got the two Star Weeks, but he was Mr. consistent this month with no Really Bad Weeks.

Frederik Andersen will post 4 Quality Weeks, but Anti Raanta will continue to get a start a week and show up for 3 Quality Weeks and no Really Bad Weeks. RIGHT. Raanta did put up one Really Bad Week, but other than that, I was bang on.

After posting his first Star Week, Phoenix Copley will find a groove and post at least one more, while having no Really Bad Weeks and 3 Quality Weeks. RIGHT. Just missed that third QW, but he got that elusive Star Week!

Philipp Grubauer will continue his strong play lately and post top 10 value with 4 Quality Weeks, 1 Star Week, and no Really Bad Weeks. He’ll take the majority of starts away from Martin Jones. WRONG. …very wrong, though he has taken more starts from Jones!

With 4 Back-to-backs over the next 4 weeks. Marc-Andre Fleury will still get starts and he will turn it around after watching his backup outplay him. Gustavsson will get more starts, but Fleury will have 3 Quality Weeks, 1 Star Week, and 1 Really Bad Week, still top 20 value. RIGHT. What I did call is that Fleury would turn his play around. I did not expect him to be the best fantasy goalie over the past month though. I’ll still take that as a win.

So for those keeping track, I’m giving myself a record of 3-3 this month that brings me to a total of 4-4-1. Let’s see if I can improve on the last bit of fantasy hockey left:

Thatcher Demko will continue his strong play finishing these last three weeks as a top 20 fantasy goaltender. This may look like 1 Star Week, 1 Really Bad Week, and 2 Quality Weeks.

Sergei Bobrovsky will move up the rankings into the top 15, finishing the season as the most underrated fantasy hockey goaltender (one of the biggest discrepancies with Yahoo’s rankings). He won’t be getting another Really Bad Week.

Pheonix Copley and Joonas Korpisalo will both be valuable to finish the season. Neither will put up a Really Bad Week.

I’m tripling down here…. Igor Shesterkin will have 3 out of 3 Quality Weeks at least 1 Star Week and no Really Bad Weeks, rewarding those who may have bought too high on him to start the season.

Jeremy Swayman will have more Star Weeks than Linus Ullmark.

Good luck to all those competing for championships!

These are new constructs aimed to help show past value in H2H category leagues (that utilize W, SV%, GAA, SO). They could be altered to better fit leagues that use a different combination of categories, but this is a good start.

I would love to hear some feedback and answer any questions you may have, hit me up on Twitter @fantasycheddar. I post an update to these rankings every week on Twitter.

-Ryan Brudner from Top Cheddar Fantasy