It’s Thursday, and you know what that means! It’s time for another edition of Thursday’s Best and Worst Goalie Starts. Last week, shall we say, wasn’t the best. Jordan Binnington played a gem, Jonathan Quick and Jeremy Swayman didn’t show up. How about that performance by Anthony Stolarz? Two and three isn’t ideal but variance happens from time to time. All I can do is look at the data and make the best decisions. Still, with a 12-6 fantasy prediction record, I can’t complain. Enough with the recap, we’ve got 11 games on the menu and you’ve got fantasy roster decisions to make… So let’s get to it.

Top Three Goalies

Jake Oettinger – Dallas Stars

With tonight’s slate filled with competitive matchups it wasn’t easy coming up with today’s rankings, but after hours of arduous hard work and sifting through piles of data, finally, the best options became clear. Drum roll please! Jake Oettinger (99% Fantrax, 98% Yahoo) of the Dallas Stars sits on the throne as this week’s number one ranked goalie. Are Jake’s numbers worthy of such an esteemed placement? To put it bluntly, no, no they are not. That being said, we all know what the Otter is capable of. Putting his stats aside, his situation is the one with the most obvious upside tonight. With a 2.31 xGA/60 the Stars have the second best defense in the league. Dallas also clocks in with a 53.1 CF% so they carry play but not to the point of overwhelming levels of the likes of the Carolina Hurricanes, Florida Panthers, or the Los Angeles Kings. The combination of these two factors makes Otter a prime candidate for a decent amount of saves and limited goals. Now for the final part of the goalie scoring tripod, the win bonus. Can Dallas win? The short answer is yes. They’re the better team in every facet of the game.

Tristan Jarry – Pittsburgh Penguins

Coming in far below Jake Oettinger on the confidence meter is our second ranked goalie, Tristan Jarry (95% Fantrax, 89% Yahoo) of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Now I don’t lack confidence in him because of anything he’s done, it’s his team. The Pens are a confounding enigma made up of great advanced stats and terrible results. Tied for second best in the league in xGF/60 and a plus 52 CF%, they should be a winning team. Yet, after 53 games, the Pens find themselves out of the playoffs and eight points back of a wildcard spot. Jarry, to his credit, is having himself quite the season. With a .914 save percentage and league leading six shutouts, who knows where the Pens would be without him. It’s that save percentage and those shutouts, in combination with his terrible opponent playing the back end of a back to back, which earns Jarry the second spot. The save total won’t be thrilling, the goal total should be under two, and the Pens should bring home the dub. Start Jarry if you have him.

Justus Annunen – Colorado Avalanche

Last but certainly not least, is Justus Annunen (Fantrax 18%, Yahoo 1%) of the Colorado Avalanche. Just last week he was on the avoid list and now he finds himself here. My oh my, how the times have changed. Okay, they haven’t changed that much, this is a risky play. Of Justus’s, three starts this year, he hasn’t had one quality start. Don’t even get me started on his save percentage. One thing of note, he does save more than expected, with a .91 GSAx, so there is that. Hear me out though, of all the games tonight, this is really your third best option. Remember, we are looking at the situation the goalie is in, and lest we forget, the Avs win games. Colorado is good, tell you something you don’t know right? I can’t. Tonight’s slate of games is of the highly competitive variety. Every game has a total of six or higher. Good luck with finding the right side. All I can do is find the three I most likely think will succeed and Justus falls into that category. In theory it should be a decent play. Detroit creates 2.29 xGF/60 at five on five play, which ranks behind everyone except for Chicago. Kind of surprising with the likes of Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, and Patrick Kane on their roster. While Colorado is no stalwart on the defensive side, allowing 2.53 xGA/60, they are certainly above average ranking 11th in the league. Listen, I’m not going to lie to you, goals will be scored, and some of them will be by the Detroit Red Wings. Regardless, the Avs are probably going to win 5-3 or 5-2. So, bite the bullet and slide Justus into that starting slot. It won’t be pretty, but he will get the job done.

Goalies to Avoid

Cayden Primeau – Montreal Canadiens

Normally this spot is reserved for a New York Islander goalie, but today I’m going in a different direction. Avoid Cayden Primeau (Fantrax 14%, Yahoo 1%) of the Montreal Canadiens. Sure, I could tell you that the Habs play terrible defense and quote various advanced stats at you, but you guys already know that. So let’s go with something you don’t know… In Cayden’s previous nine starts, he’s allowed four or more goals a whopping four times. That’s 44% of the time for the non math nerds out there. Of those four, he had for our purposes, two RBS against the Florida Panthers and Ottawa Senators. Technically the Sens game wasn’t an RBS since his save percentage was .861, but when you let in five… Cayden’s time is coming in Montreal and maybe even for your fantasy team, it’s just not tonight. There are better waiver options out there.

Jordan Binnington – St. Louis Blues

Jordan Binnington (Fantrax 82%, Yahoo 80%) of the St. Louis Blues is your final goalie to avoid this week. Jordan burned me last week, can he do it twice in a row? Survey says, probably not. His opponent, the New York Islanders, have been putting pucks in nets at a relatively high frequency as of late. Averaging just below four in their past five games. Factor in the Blues struggling defense, which allows 2.99 xGA/60, and I hope you can see where I’m going here. This game will be a sloppy high scoring affair, and Binnington may even get the win. He’s probably going to allow four goals in the meantime.

Stick with one of the top three above if you have them, even if you don’t, there are better options still out there.

All stats are from Evolving-Hockey. As always, if you have any questions, shoot me a DM on X at @Bobbybets1122.