Playoff Ramblings

With a bit of a sample size in the books for the 2026 playoffs, it appears as if the undefeated Carolina Hurricanes are on a collision course with the undefeated Colorado Avalanche in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Frederik Andersen (7-0, 0.957%) has hit double digits in GSAx (+10.9) in a mere 7 games. The Canes veteran has only allowed 8 total goals!

His first round counterpart, Linus Ullmark (0-4, 0.932%), actually had a better GSAx/60 (+1.51), but was swept by the stifling defense of the Hurricanes.

It seems like only an injury to Freddie will allow Bussi or Kochetkov into the crease.

Other than Ullmark, the only other goalie to go 0-4 was Anton Forsberg (0.909%).

Scott Wedgewood (6-0. 0.923%), has relegated Blackwood to the bench. He has only allowed 13 goals in 6 games. That 2.16 goals allowed per game number should be more than enough to secure wins for the offensively inclined Avalanche. Wedgewood has saved 3.2 goals above expected.

Since Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (1-1, 0.821%) let in a softie from center ice against the Boston Bruins, he has yet to start in any subsequent game for the Buffalo Sabres.

Alex Lyon (4-1) has taken over in the crease and is only one of two goalies still active in the playoffs with a GSAx/60 above 1 (+1.023), the other being the aforementioned Freddie Andersen (+1.385).

In Game 1 of the second round, Lyon stopped 26 of 29 shots (0.929) to keep a strong grasp on the crease. Don'T be surprsied to see UPL get another chance if Lyon falters. The Sabres easily rotated Lyon, UPL, and Ellis during the regular season.

After an elite Game 7 against Tampa Bay where he posted a 0.966% (28/29), Jakub Dobes threw down a rusty 0.750% (12/16) in his first game against the Sabres. Perhaps another bad game is what is needed for Marty St. Louis to try Jacob Fowler in nets.

The Flyers (-2) and the Habs (-1) are the only surviving teams with a negative goal differential these playoffs.

The Flyers are sticking with Vladar (4-5, 0.921%), who has played a league leading 567:49 minutes of ice time these playoffs.

He does, however, have a sub 0.900 save percentage in 5 of his 9 playoff games thus far. He pocketed a couple of shutouts against the Penguins, and is tied with Frederik Andersen for the playoff lead (2).

Teams that have may regress include the Wild with +7.07 goals above expected and the Avalanche with a playoff leading PDO at 106.55.

Sabres have been poor in the faceoff circle (43%), whereas their 2nd round opponents, the Canadiens, have been one of the best (56%).

Do hits give you an advantage in the playoffs? Of the 9 teams that have more hits given than hits taken, five have been eliminated (Kings, Bruins, Senators, Mammoth, and Oilers), and three are trailing in their second round series (Canadiens, Flyers, Wild). I don’t think its statistically significant, but would have to examine a larger sample size to provide a definitive answer to that question.

Carter Hart (5-3) has a solid 0.912 save percentage these playoffs following a below average 0.891 in the regular season.

Jesper Wallstedt (-0.3 GSAx) has been average these playoffs going 4-3 with a 0.903 save percentage. Gustavsson (-1.3 GSAx) did get a game in against the Avalanche stopping 18 of 22 shots (0.818%), so most likely the Wild go back to Wallstedt in Game 3.

Lukas Dostal (5-3, 0.886%) won 4 games against Edmonton and 1 against Vegas. Overall, he has probably been a bit below average (-2.0 GSAx).

None of the Oilers current or former goalies were impressive in the 2026 playoffs:

Connor Ingram (2-3, 0.876%) -2.9 GSAx.
Tristan Jarry (0-1, 0.895%) -0.5 GSAx.
Stuart Skinner (0-3, 0.873%) -2.8 GSAx.

Both Ingram and Skinner are unrestricted free agents. The Oilers are saddled with Jarry’s $5.375 million AAV for another 2 years.

A couple of teams they can look at for a goaltender include the Maple Leafs where Dennis Hildeby is no longer waiver exempt. Could Woll or Stolarz pry loose with the excess goalies there? As well as the Montreal Canadiens that have Montembault ($3.15M), Dobes ($965k), and Fowler ($923k) all signed for next year.