New Year's Bonus Ramblings

2025 has come to a close, and what better time to look at the goalies that performed well in this calendar year than on January 1st!

Here are the top 10 goalies ranked by 5v5 save percentage:

Jesper Wallstedt, 16gp, 0.940

Darcy Kuemper, 56gp, 0.938

Andrei Vasilevsky, 60gp, 0.931

Brandon Bussi, 15gp, 0.930

Casey DeSmith, 31gp, 0.928

Jett Greaves, 33gp, 0.926

Scott Wedgewood, 37gp, 0.924

Connor Hellebuyck, 55gp, 0.923

Eric Comrie, 26gp, 0.923

Igor Shesterkin, 66gp, 0.923

Wallstedt, Bussi, and Comrie have lower games played, so they need to sustain this production before they can be considered amongst the best at 5 on 5.

Next up, the top 10 goalies in 5v5 goals saved above expected for 2025:

Kuemper +31.41

Thompson +28.36

Shesterkin +26.03

Vasilevsky +25.86

DeSmith +21.51

Daccord +18.86

Hellebuyck +18.54

Sorokin +18.01

Gustavsson +16.73

Knight +16.59

Canada represented well at the top of this list. Kuemper deserves a spot on Team Canada, but is getting older and a little on the fragile side, always missing games here and there. The only backup on this list is Casey DeSmith. A +21.51 GSAx is impressive in only 31 games played.

Some leagues value workhorses, where total saves, or total wins are valuable. Here are the top 10 goalies in minutes played in 2025:

Shesterkin 3930

Vejmelka 3779

Wolf 3732

Vasilevsky 3578

Swayman 3446

Gustavsson 3380

Oettinger 3357

Saros 3355

Sorokin 3353

Daccord 3318

Vejmelka finally got hurt after the 2nd heaviest workload in 2025. Wolf has a very capable backup in D.Cooley who was just extended by the Flames for 2 more years. Gustavsson has recently entered a timeshare with Wallstedt. Sorokin is currently out with a minor injury, but is playing at an elite level this season. Unlike last season, Grubauer has been stopping pucks so he has been giving Daccord some rest.

The most shutouts in 2025:

Bobrovksy 7

Shesterkin 6

Gustavsson 6

Sorokin 6

Kuemper 6

Vasilevsky 5

Blackwood 5

Thompson 4

Skinner 4

Wallstedt 4

The only one who I see dropping out of this list is Stuart Skinner, who has gone from the starter on a good team, to a timeshare on a struggling team.

Now we move onto the rapid fire section for calendar year 2025:

Most games with 0.950 sv% or higher: Vasilevsky (22).

Most games with a 0.850 sv% or lower: Binnington (19).

Most games with 40+ shots against: Soderblom (8).

Lowest GAA: Kuemper (1.96)

Highest save percentage: Wallstedt (0.928)

Most wins: Vasilevsky (37)

Most wins at home: Vasilevsky (24)

Most wins on the road: Shesterkin (18)

With the much anticipated Team Canada Olympic roster reveal yesterday, we wonder if Team Canada Management was affected by recency bias in their selections?

Bo Horvat is a career 0.70 points per game center, who has been playing above his norm, scoring at 0.94 points per game this season. His shooting percentage (17.5%) is quite a bit higher than his career average (13.6%).

If we shrink his shooting percentage to his career average, his goal total this season would be at 16.32 (instead of 21), meaning his 'corrected' points per game would be 0.81.

Would he have been picked by Team Canada brass had he not had an inflated shooting percentage this season?

Another Team Canada selection with significant regression flags is Macklin Celebrini. Like Horvat, his shooting percentage has ballooned to 17.5% this season.

If that wasn't enough, his 5 on 5 shooting percentage is at an astounding 17.6%. This means that pucks are going in at an absurd rate even for his linemates.

Some might say this is due to his talent. That is incorrect, let me explain why. The top ten 5 on 5 shooting percentages over the last eighteen seasons include E. Lindell, K.Johnson, PL Dubois, J. Benn, M. Bunting, JJ Moser, C.Stephenson, D.Strome, C.Franson, and N.Antropov. Had this been a talent thing, this list would be littered with names like Kucherov, Crosby, Ovechkin, McDavid, etc...

These top ten seasons included inflated 5 on 5 shooting percentages that ranged from 13.1% to 13.4%. To reiterate, the absolute best seasons over the last 18 years did not exceed a 13.4% 5 on 5 shooting percentage.

Thus, Celebrini's 17.6% is extremely unsustainable and will come crashing down. Under the hood, he is not a 1.55 points per game player. Would he have been selected to Team Canada had his own shooting percentage and 5 on 5 shooting percentage not been so lucky?

If we look at the calendar year of 2025, 26 year old center Nick Suzuki has really stepped it up. Suzuki's 1.15 points per game is 9th in the league, and better than the ppg rates of Robertson, Crosby, Marner, Connor, Makar, Necas, and Kaprizov over the same time period. Only 3 Team Canada teammates have a higher 2025 ppg than Suzuki : McDavid, Mackinnon, and Celebrini!

Lower down on this same list we have some quiet surprises for the 2025 calendar year:

Roope Hintz 1.00 ppg. 76 points in his last 76 games. He is getting more power play time under the new coach this season, so this point per game pace should continue.
Morgan Geekie 0.98 ppg. 82 points his last 84 games. If you thought Celebrini's shooting percentage was high, Geekie is shooting at 25.5% this year, and shot 21.9% last year. Some guys, like B.Point, are picky with their shots and have a higher shooting percentage than the average NHL player, however Geekie's numbers are high for any player. Geekie's career average is 16.4%. If anyone here is due for a decrease, it is this young goal scorer on the Bruins.
Patrick Kane 0.98 ppg. 65 points in his last 66 games. He has had some injury issues recently but has bounced back splendidly from hip resurfacing surgery in 2023. It won't be enough to get him a spot on the Olympic team, but he can keep up his production. He would likely be over a point per game for the 2025 calendar year, if it wasn't for his slightly low shooting percentage of 8.1% this season (career average 11.5%).
Bryan Rust 0.96 ppg. 72 points in his last 75 games. For the last 3 seasons, Rust has produced 0.90 ppg, 0.92 ppg, and 0.94 ppg. He has upped that to 0.96 ppg in the 2025 calendar year. If the Penguins continue to fall in the standings, he might be traded to a place where he wont be on the top line, nor on the the top PP with guys like Crosby, so a 0.96 ppg might be harder to sustain. If he stays on the Penguins, others might overlook him due to age, but you shouldn't.

2025 has come to a close, and what better time to look at the goalies that performed well in this calendar year than on January 1st!

Here are the top 10 goalies ranked by 5v5 save percentage:

Jesper Wallstedt, 16gp, 0.940

Darcy Kuemper, 56gp, 0.938

Andrei Vasilevsky, 60gp, 0.931

Brandon Bussi, 15gp, 0.930

Casey DeSmith, 31gp, 0.928

Jett Greaves, 33gp, 0.926

Scott Wedgewood, 37gp, 0.924

Connor Hellebuyck, 55gp, 0.923

Eric Comrie, 26gp, 0.923

Igor Shesterkin, 66gp, 0.923

Wallstedt, Bussi, and Comrie have lower games played, so they need to sustain this production before they can be considered amongst the best at 5 on 5.

Next up, the top 10 goalies in 5v5 goals saved above expected for 2025:

Kuemper +31.41

Thompson +28.36

Shesterkin +26.03

Vasilevsky +25.86

DeSmith +21.51

Daccord +18.86

Hellebuyck +18.54

Sorokin +18.01

Gustavsson +16.73

Knight +16.59

Some leagues value workhorses, where total saves, or total wins are valuable. Here are the top 10 goalies in minutes played in 2025:

Shesterkin 3930

Vejmelka 3779

Wolf 3732

Vasilevsky 3578

Swayman 3446

Gustavsson 3380

Oettinger 3357

Saros 3355

Sorokin 3353

Daccord 3318

The most shutouts in 2025:

Bobrovksy 7

Shesterkin 6

Gustavsson 6

Sorokin 6

Kuemper 6

Vasilevsky 5

Blackwood 5

Thompson 4

Skinner 4

Wallstedt 4

The only one who I see dropping out of this list is Stuart Skinner, who has gone from the starter on a good team, to a timeshare on a struggling team.

Now we move onto the rapid fire section for calendar year 2025:

Most games with 0.950 sv% or higher: Vasilevsky (22).

Most games with a 0.850 sv% or lower: Binnington (19).

Most games with 40+ shots against: Soderblom (8).

Lowest GAA: Kuemper (1.96)

Highest save percentage: Wallstedt (0.928)

Most wins: Vasilevsky (37)

Most wins at home: Vasilevsky (24)

Most wins on the road: Shesterkin (18)

With the much anticipated Team Canada Olympic roster reveal yesterday, we wonder if Team Canada Management was affected by recency bias in their selections?

If we shrink his shooting percentage to his career average, his goal total this season would be at 16.32 (instead of 21), meaning his 'corrected' points per game would be 0.81.

Would he have been picked by Team Canada brass had he not had an inflated shooting percentage this season?

Another Team Canada selection with significant regression flags is Macklin Celebrini. Like Horvat, his shooting percentage has ballooned to 17.5% this season.

If that wasn't enough, his 5 on 5 shooting percentage is at an astounding 17.6%. This means that pucks are going in at an absurd rate even for his linemates.

Lower down on this same list we have some quiet surprises for the 2025 calendar year:

Roope Hintz 1.00 ppg. 76 points in his last 76 games. He is getting more power play time under the new coach this season, so this point per game pace should continue.
Morgan Geekie 0.98 ppg. 82 points his last 84 games. If you thought Celebrini's shooting percentage was high, Geekie is shooting at 25.5% this year, and shot 21.9% last year. Some guys, like B.Point, are picky with their shots and have a higher shooting percentage than the average NHL player, however Geekie's numbers are high for any player. Geekie's career average is 16.4%. If anyone here is due for a decrease, it is this young goal scorer on the Bruins.
Patrick Kane 0.98 ppg. 65 points in his last 66 games. He has had some injury issues recently but has bounced back splendidly from hip resurfacing surgery in 2023. It won't be enough to get him a spot on the Olympic team, but he can keep up his production. He would likely be over a point per game for the 2025 calendar year, if it wasn't for his slightly low shooting percentage of 8.1% this season (career average 11.5%).
Bryan Rust 0.96 ppg. 72 points in his last 75 games. For the last 3 seasons, Rust has produced 0.90 ppg, 0.92 ppg, and 0.94 ppg. He has upped that to 0.96 ppg in the 2025 calendar year. If the Penguins continue to fall in the standings, he might be traded to a place where he wont be on the top line, nor on the the top PP with guys like Crosby, so a 0.96 ppg might be harder to sustain. If he stays on the Penguins, others might overlook him due to age, but you shouldn't.