Monday Ramblings featuring Lukas Dostal and Carolina's 3-headed monster

The upcoming goalie UFA class is bare bones. One of the top options is aging injury prone veteran Freddie Andersen. Does the Hurricanes current three headed tandem, mean that F. Andersen walks and Kochetkov becomes the clear-cut volume starter next year? The last time we thought that, the Canes signed Andersen to a 2-year deal with a $3.4 million AAV for his age 34 and 35 season. Coach Brind’Amour has shown that regardless of who the goaltenders are, he likes to split the workload. We can predict what life will be like without Andersen (either next year if he is not extended, or this year when his next inevitable injury occurs):

If we look at the Hurricanes goaltending from late October to mid-January, when Freddie Andersen was out, the breakdown in goalie starts happened in the following manner: Kochetkov 25, Martin 8, Tokarski 6. Despite competing with the likes of Spencer Martin and Dustin Tokarski, Kochetkov was only able to garner 25 out of 39 starts (64%). With B. Bussi and P. Kochetkov this projects to be closer to 60/40 in favor of Kochetkov. The Hurricanes are a win magnet but those wins are split between multiple keepers. From the point when Andersen returned in mid-January, he and Kochetkov alternated games for the remainder of the season (the only exception being Kochetkov got the last game before the 4 Nations Face off and first game following it). This predictable pattern by Brind’Amour actually made life easier for fantasy GMs because you would know which goalie would get 2 starts in a 3 game week.

In 2025 however, the Canes have made matters more complicated for fantasy GMs, the Hurricanes have signalled that they will carry three goalies for fear of losing B.Bussi on waivers. In the 7 games since Kochetkov's return from injury, the breakdown in games has been Kochetkov 3, Andersen 3, and Bussi 1. There is however an important wrinkle here, these 7 games have included only 2 away games. F.Andersen was left to rest in Carolina when the Canes travelled to New York for their game on November 4th. Bussi backed up Kochetkov, who posted a shutout in his first game back. This repeated again, when Carolina travelled to Toronto on November 9, this time Kochetkov backed up Bussi. It will be interesting to see goalie deployment on the upcoming 4 game road trip for the Hurricanes - November 17 to 23 - away games at Boston, Minnesota, Winnipeg, and Buffalo. Does Freddie Andersen stay in Carolina to rest and recover? If he comes, does he even dress? Do the Canes keep their fragile top option in bubble wrap until the playoffs?

This setup makes me hesitant to own any Canes goalie in any league where volume is important. If the tandem next year is Bussi and Kochetkov, then Bussi might be a sneaky zero G target (just don’t expect volume). The Hurricanes appear to be constantly linked to goaltenders in rumours: J. Gibson last year, C. Hart and J. Binnington this year. Frank Seravalli on November 3rd noted that: ‘I think they're definitely monitoring the goaltending market; my concern would be that they don't wanna spend a lot at goaltending, it's not something they wanna throw massive assets at.’ We can extrapolate for next year that Kochetkov will provide a solid save percentage and GAA but his win totals may not be elite, however it may be too early to speculate on the Canes goaltending situation because GM Tulsky is always on the prowl for a value acquisition. For a longer term outlook, the Canes drafted 6’3’’ Russian goalie Semyon Frolov in Round 2 of the 2025 NHL Draft. He is signed in the KHL until 2027 (4-1-1, 0.929% in the MHL this year).

Sitting near the top of the Pacific is the fifth youngest team in the NHL, the Anaheim Ducks (average age 27.1). The big question on everyone’s minds: is this team for real, have they turned the corner or are they riding inflated percentages and puck luck? These crucial questions will help us determine if young goalie Lukas Dostal is a fantasy trade target ready to make the leap into the league's top echelon of goalies. A 3rd round pick in 2018, Dostal has finally got the reins to the starters role following the summer departure of John Gibson to Detroit. He has made a significant jump in Dobber’s latest Goalie rankings from 21st to 6th. Dostal has started 14 of the Ducks' first 18 games, posting an 8-5-1 record to go along with a 0.903% save percentage (career 0.902%). He sits 8th in the league with a +8.9 GSAx. He is especially good on low danger shots where his save percentage rises to 0.979%, and he has essentially solidified his selection on the Czech team (other options include Karel Vejmelka , Jakub Dobes, and Dan Vladar).

How are the Anaheim Ducks doing under the hood? They sit 7th in the league in PDO 101.57, meaning they have been getting some puck luck and we should expect regression downwards in their shooting percentage and save percentage. They are also 3rd in the league in Goals For Above Expected at (+3.44), and 10th in the league in Goals Against Above Expected (-7.77). Combine those two together and the Ducks shoot up to 4th in the NHL in Goal Differential Above Expected (11.21). This is a red flag since their actual goal differential is +9: an indication that they are closer to the middle of the pack in goal differential, and hence points.

This is corroborated by individual advanced stats of Ducks players. The biggest ‘offenders’ that are likely to regress from their current production include:

Cutter Gauthier, shooting at 14.8% (11.7% in his 101 game NHL career), his 5v5 shooting percentage slightly up at 13.2%. His PDO also elevated at 1045.

Jacob Trouba, shooting at 12.5% (about triple his career average of 4.4%), his 5v5 shooting percentage slightly up at 11.6%. His PDO also elevated at 1064.

Chris Kreider, normally shooting at 15.3%, has doubled it to 30.3% so far this year.

Beckett Sennecke and Leo Carlsson are also sporting unsustainable shooting percentages of 18.8% and 22.9% respectively. Both also have IPPs greater than 75%.

Ducks with the highest Goals Above Expected? The same culprits: C. Gauthier 6.6, L. Carlsson 4.5, C. Kreider 3.3, and J. Trouba 2.1.

The one rare buy low on the Ducks would be Jackson Lacombe who has an IPP of only 20%. He has 0 goals on 37 shots, and is only producing 0.9 pts/60 (1.5 pts/60 last year for comparison). He is on the ice when Ducks are scoring but just not one of the last 3 players to touch the puck before a goal. He is getting the bulk of power play time (69.1%) but only has a 33.3 IPP on the power play.

There is a lot of hype with the Ducks and Dostal, it may be a good idea just to see if he can be flipped for a goalie with a track record on a more reliable team. Regardless he seems to be a workhorse and the Ducks have improved, so it’s not a ‘pause the pod’ and SELL immediately type of situation. The advanced stats show that regression is coming. It might have already started: the Ducks have been outscored 12-4 in 3 straight losses.