Monday Morning Ramblings featuring Vejmelka, Bobrovsky, Swayman, Gibson, and Kuemper

With the Olympic break upon us, and about 70% of the season complete, let's dive into what awaits us for the remainder of the 2025-26 season.

Fantasy GMs can take advantage of the uneven games played at the break. You can squeeze out a few more games of production from players on Colorado, Tampa Bay, and San Jose; teams with only 55 games played. Washington has played the most at 59.

The Colorado Avalanche (83 pts) have faltered in January, allowing the Lightning, Hurricanes, and Wild to come within 5 points (all three teams tied for 2nd in the league with 78 pts).

The Mammoth goaltending has given up the 3rd fewest goals in the league (157). They have the 6th easiest schedule remaining (0.554 combined points percentage of opponents). Vejmelka gets volume, he is tied with Saros with 44 games played, and his 2585 minutes is the most ice time of any NHL player.

The Utah Mammoth, the only team not to go into a shootout this season, are tied for 15th in the league standings with 64 points, but only 5 teams have bested their +26 goal differential. They have been a team that has failed to convert their great goal differential into wins. Utah is at +22.63 goal differential above expected (5th in the league), meaning that at 15th overall; they are who we thought they were!

One of the biggest regression candidates are the Boston Bruins. They are 2nd last in expected goals against (195.27), 1st in goal differential above expected (+40.91), and 4th in PDO (102). Sell high on Swayman and Korpisalo. Boston has the 2nd hardest strength of schedule remaining with opposing teams boasting a combined points percentage of 0.586. Jeremy Swayman has the highest expected goals against in the league (125.2).

The Detroit Red Wings are tied for 6th in the league standings with 72 points, but their -1 goal differential places them 17th in the league. The Red Wings also have the 5th toughest schedule remaining (0.578 combined points percentage of opponents). Sell high on Gibson. Remember that in October and November he posted terrible numbers, a 0.875% and 0.853% respectively. Don't forget that from the 2019-20 season to the 2023-24 season his save percentage ranged from 0.888% to 0.904%.

The Florida Panthers are (tied for) 21st in the league with 61 points but (tied for) 9th in the league in regulation wins (23), a stat that bodes well for them if they can claw their way back into the playoffs. That is more than regulation wins than teams like Montreal and Minnesota who each have 21. The Panthers are sporting a 97.36 PDO, 2nd lowest in the NHL. They should be doing better. There are rumours that Brad Marchand may get shut down rest of season post-Olympics for injury reasons. Tarasov was alternating starts with Bobrovsky during the 2nd half of January. He suffered a lower body injury after allowing 5 goals to Tampa Bay. The Bobrovsky owner in your league might sell low on him seeing Tarasov getting more starts. The Florida goalies are a buy, but I don't like this timeshare that kills the value of both goalies. Now that Panarin has signed with LA, does his buddy Bobrovsky (UFA) join him in California next season? Both D. Kuemper and A. Forsberg are signed for another season.

The Panarin addition should help the Kings as they are tied with the Devils for the 2nd least amount of goals scored (146). Calgary is league worst with 142 goals for. Los Angeles has the 2nd easiest strength of schedule remaining with opposing teams demonstrating a combined points percentage of just 0.529. The Kings still have 3 games remaining against each of Vancouver and Calgary, both of whom might be even worse after the trade deadline. The Kings have the 3rd worst goals for above expected (-24.85), so we should expect an offensive uptick. Buy on Kuemper.

If we assume shootouts are a coin flip, the following teams should be better when the season resumes: Colorado (1 win, 5 losses in the shootout), Penguins (1-7), Vegas (1-6), Washington (1-5). On the opposite end, Anaheim is 6-0 in shootouts.