Monday Morning Ramblings featuring Shesterkin, Quick, Markstrom, Binnington, Montembeault, and the Leafs power play

In the past, the Rangers had King Henrik guarding the cage. Today they have Queen Igor, more specifically Drama Queen Igor!

Let’s take a look at some of Shesterkin's lower body injuries, his reaction, and how long he was sidelined for.

Exhibit A: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybKuFkb9APY

March 4th 2021, Shesterkin makes a 2 on 1 save on Damon Severson, and ends up motionless, face to the ice, hands to the head, the trainer rushes onto the ice, he is helped off the ice by two Rangers teammates, unable to weight bear. He is back in an NHL game 21 days later.

Exhibit B: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BGEhIbsKls

December 3rd 2021, he is sprawled out on the ice after a scramble in the crease, ends up motionless, face to the ice, hands to the head, the trainer rushes onto the ice, he is helped off the ice by Jacob Trouba, unable to weight bear. He is back in an NHL game 26 days later.

Exhibit C: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAEW0dnwMw8

May 5th 2022, Jeff Carter collides with Shesterkin, who lies on the ice motionless as if he was just shot, wincing in pain as the trainer attends to him. He stays in this playoff game, and starts two days later.

Although Shesterkin’s histrionic reactions make each injury seem season ending, it will probably sideline him for much less. Another clue: It was Adam Fox that was put on long term injured reserve (LTIR), not Shesterkin, who was placed on regular IR.

This time it might be different but I for one am not trusting the boy who cried (Dustin) Wolf.

Shesterkin's injury has thrust 39 year old Jonathan Quick into the starters role, and he hasn't fared well. In three games since, he has cumulatively stopped only 45 of 58 shots (0.775%).

In fact, he hasn't been playing well for the last 2 months, his last win coming on November 7, 2025. In 9 games since that win, Quick has an 0-7-2 record, GAA of 3.50, and 0.877%. He did have some quality starts during that stretch but the Rangers have not provided any run support (15 goals for, in Quick's last 9 games).

As the Rangers sink in the standings without Adam Fox and Igor Shesterkin, GM Chris Drury might sell off UFA Artemi Panarin rendering the Rangers offense even more anemic than it already is. Paradoxically, look for Alexis Lafreniere's output to increase with more regular PP1 time. 

GM Chris Drury's ruthless tactics of trading away players with NTCs, has not gone unnoticed by other GMs. Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald seems to be employing this strategy with Dougie Hamilton, benching him unless he opens up his no trade list (a 10 team trade list that has been described as 'strategic' by insider David Pagnotta).

His agent, JP Barry, has responded that they are open to being more flexible. Last summer, Hamilton vetoed a potential deal to the Sharks.

Dougie Hamilton has suffered from negative puck luck this season and has nowhere to go but up with a change of scenery. His 5v5 shooting percentage is 4.6% (last year: 10.3%). His IPP is 32.3 (usually it is closer to 50). His secondary assists are low (40%) but there's not much of a sample size to work with as he only has 5 assists all season. His PDO is low 965. His shooting percentage is at 4.7% (career: 6.2%). All this along with better deployment on the power play should help Hamilton's stats rebound positively.

The Devils are a tire-fire, being outscored 19-4 in the last 11 periods. Jacob Markstrom made history with the worst goalie performance of the modern stats era with a GSAx of -7.57 in the 9-0 loss to the Islanders. In that game, Ondrej Palat was a -5 in only 9:39 of ice time, and Arseni Gritsyuk (16:24 TOI) was a surprising 0 in the +/- category.

To put into perspective how bad that performance was, Markstrom was at -4.03 GSAx through 21 games, which dropped off a cliff to -11.6 GSAx following this 9-0 drubbing. The only goaltenders to have a worse GSAx on the season are L.Merilainen (-14.3), L. Ullmark (-18.3), and J. Binnington (-18.5). Two of those three goalies are Ottawa Senators!

The Senators have a shocking 0.873% team save percentage through 43 games. Mads Sogard continued the Senators 2024-25 tradition of goaltending futility by allowing 5 goals in just 17:25 of ice time (0.688%). To be fair it was against the Avalanche who had already potted 8 goals on Markstrom on October 28, 2025. Three days later, Markstrom was signed to a 2 year extension (6 million AAV).

Markstrom is no longer a 1A. For the last 15 games, Coach Sheldon Keefe has alternated an even split between Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen, except for the last 2 games, which have gone to Allen.

Jake Allen's former teammate Jordan Binnington started 2026 off with a bang. He shutout the Canadiens 2-0, after getting only one win in seven December games. His 2026 success didn’t last long as he was tagged for seven goals against a Chicago Blackhawks team that was missing Connor Bedard. I don’t see how Team Canada allows him near the net in Milan.

In a hilarious turn of events, Joel Hofer hid while Coach Monty unsuccessfully called for a goalie change in the 3rd period of that Blues-Blackhawks game.

We segue onto the next goaltender with this riddle: St.Louis’ coach is Monty, but Monty’s coach is St.Louis.

Samuel Montembault has rebounded dramatically after his conditioning stint. Since being recalled he is 3-0, stopping 77 of 84 shots (0.917%). Two of those wins came against his former team, the Florida Panthers, and the other against the Dallas Stars.

GM Kent Hughes said that he doesn’t envision the Canadiens keeping 3 goalies on their roster for the long term. Reading into that, it likely means Jacob Fowler will get sent down to Laval at the very latest before the Olympics. You want to let your top goalie prospect hone his skills and get more AHL games during the Olympic break.

In the meantime, Coach Marty St.Louis has to ration game time between three goalies (Monty, Dobes, Fowler) all eager to play. The Canadiens are no stranger to 3 goalie rotations as they have in the past kept Montembault, Allen, and Primeau at the NHL level for an extended time.

Another goalie that has graduated from a conditioning stint, Carter Hart, hasn't fared well this season (GSAx/60 of -0.846) and is now week to week with a left leg injury. This GSAx/60 is so poor that it is sandwiched between the GSAx/60 numbers of Binnington (-0.751), Mrazek (-0.930), and Merilainen (-0.939).

Thatcher Demko was placed on IR retroactive to Jan.10. This makes Lankinen a must add if you need starts/saves. If you need wins, then stay away. The Canucks have lost 8 of their last 9. Their only win coming in a shootout against Seattle.

The Toronto Maple Leafs usually have an excellent power play.

Here are their power play percentages in recent years, along with league rank:

2024-25 : 24.8 (8th)

2023-24 : 24.0 (7th)

2022-23 : 26.0 (2nd)

2021-22 : 27.3 (1st)

On January 7th, the Leafs were sitting at 25th in the league with a power play percentage of 16.3%. This number was even lower on December 22nd, 2025 when power play coach Marc Savard was fired by the Leafs.

Was it his fault? Was it because Mitch Marner took his talents to the strip? More on him later, but this is virtually the same power play core that has had success in the past few years.

A good chunk of the blame can be placed on the Leafs shooting percentage at 5 on 4, which was 3rd lowest in the league at 9.7%.

If we boost that to league average, let’s say 13%, the Leafs would have 22.78 power play goals instead of 17, raising their power play percentage to 21.9% (which would place them a respectable 12th in the league).

Side note: Colorado is 2nd last in 5 on 4 shooting percentage at 9.46%, imagine how much more deadly they would be if they had even a league average shooting percentage. They have scored the most goals in the entire NHL, and allowed the least.

Did Marner take the Leafs power play magic with him to Vegas? It would appear so as Vegas is 5th in the league with a 25.4% power play percentage. However, digging deeper, their shooting percentage at 5 on 4 is a bit high at 17.58% (8th in the league).

If we run the same exercise as we did with the Leafs and adjust Vegas’ shooting percentage down to league average, they would only have 23.66 power play goals (instead of 32), dropping their power play percentage to 18.6%.

So in conclusion, although Vegas is 5th and Toronto is 25th (PP stats from Jan.7) in the league in power play percentage, if we regress their respective shooting percentages to league average on a power play, it is actually the Leafs which come out slightly ahead (21.9% vs 18.6%).

Over the remainder of the season, power play points should increase for the Leafs players on your roster.

Looking at Marner specifically, he is at 1.07 points per game, despite not having a ppg lower than 1.22 in his previous 5 seasons. Many were expecting big things out of Marner in Vegas, but his production has actually decreased.

Many will attribute this to the new environment and assume this is his new norm. A closer look reveals that Marner is often the third or fourth Vegas player to touch the puck before a power play goal.

His PP IPP normally sits between 62.5-72.5% , meaning the percentage of goals scored by his team on the power play, that he registered a point on, is around 2 out of 3. This year that has taken a nosedive all the way down to 41.9%. He has contributed much less on the power play, but his power play points should follow an upwards trajectory as this regresses to the norm.

Marner still plays the same quarterback position on the power play, bumping out Shea Theodore from PP1, like Marner did to Morgan Rielly previously. Marner's overall IPP (not just on the power play) is also down. He normally gets a point on 70-76% of all goals scored by his team while he is on the ice. This year that is down to 61.3%. This is one of several reasons why Marner’s rest of season point pace should trend upwards.

He is getting a higher percentage of power play time on Vegas than he did in Toronto, and his shooting percentage is only at 12.5% this season (whereas it has been between 15.3% and 16.5% for the last 4 seasons). 

Schedule alert! The Oilers have a 5 game week: Monday January 12 to Sunday January 18.

On the Oilers menu we have a buffet of bottom feeders. Back to back away games against Chicago and Nashville, followed by a home game against the Islanders, capped off by a back to back against Vancouver and St.Louis.

Other than the Isles, all opponents are in the bottom quarter of the standings. With Tristan Jarry close to a return (he took part in a full team skate on Saturday), there might be enough wins this week to satisfy Jarry, Ingram, and Pickard owners. Odds are that it is Pickard that is sent down when all 3 are healthy. However, Ingram is waiver exempt until Jan.17, so that too could play a role in the Oilers decision if they choose to send someone down.