Monday Morning Ramblings featuring Gibson, Talbot, Lyon, Skinner, Ullmark, Markstrom and waiver targets.

Cam Talbot played in 15 games during the months of October and November. Since then he has only played in 16 games, from December to early April.

John Gibson has taken a firm grasp of the starting goalie role (+12.3 GSAx) and left Cam Talbot (-9.2 GSAx) as the clear backup. In fact, Talbot got his first start in a full month on Sunday April 5 (the previous one coming on March 4th).

Gibson was shaky to start the season going 4-7-1 in October/November, with an 0.865%. December onwards, he underwent a renaissance with a strong 24-13-2 record to go along with a significantly improved 0.913%.

As the sun sets on this season, the Red Wings have 5 games remaining, none of which are back to back. After the 5-4 loss to the Wild, where Talbot saved just 15 of 20 shots (0.750%), it is quite possible that we see Gibson from here on out, as Detroit has a 22.8% chance of making the playoffs.

The remainder of Detroit's games are against eastern conference rivals - 3 home games against Columbus, Philadelphia, and New Jersey, followed by 2 away games against Tampa Bay and Florida. Gibson's save percentage is worse against Eastern Conference opponents (0.896% vs 0.915%), however the brutal Pacific division probably boosts the numbers for most opposing goalies!

Talbot is a free agent and will not be returning to the Red Wings. They will give a shot to one of the young prospects (23 year old Sebastian Cossa or 21 year old Trey Augustine) to join Gibson in the crease next year. Gibson is signed for one more year at $6.4 million with a 10 team no trade list.

Missing the playoffs might spell the end for Steve Yzerman as GM. He failed to make any big additions at the trade deadline (Justin Faulk doesn't count!) when it looked like the Red Wings were going to make the playoffs. Since the NHL trade deadline the Red Wings are 5-9-1.

Patrick Kane doesn't seem to age, he has 19 points in his last 15 games. He contributed an assist on Detroit's first goal, and then scored the game tying goal in the 3rd period, before taking a penalty which paved the way for Kaprizov's power play game winning goal Sunday night. 

Alex Lyon (+12.6 GSAx on the season) was flying high in Buffalo, splitting starts with UPL, as the Sabres surged up the Atlantic division. After 6 consecutive wins, Lyon crashed hard in his last 3 games stopping a combined 44 of 57 shots (0.771%). He was pulled after just 5:52 of period 1 against the Capitals after letting in 3 goals.

The Sabres have drifted from their evenly split goalie start plan, and gave UPL back to back starts. Buffalo is now neck and neck with the Canadiens battling for home ice advantage in round 1. The Sabres could still grab top spot in the Atlantic with a strong end to the season.

They also have 5 games left: Lightning, Rangers, Blue Jackets, Blackhawks, and the Stars. Since December 9, the Sabres are an unearthly 35-9-4, but they have hit a skid recently going 2-3-2 in their last 7 games. Their -10 goal differential in these last 7 games has brought them down to +35 on the season.

The Avalanche and the Hurricanes have locked up top seed in their respective divisions. The only other team that is as close to a virtual lock to finish in their current slot is the Pittsburgh Penguins who have a greater than 95% chance of claiming 2nd place in the Metropolitan division.

The Penguins have moved into 2nd in the league in goals for, by potting an astonishing 30 goals in their last 5 games. This has led to a fantasy boon: Chinakhov has 7 points in his last 4 games. Rickard Rakell has 10 goals in his last 10 games. Malkin has 12 points in his last 8 games. Crosby has 13 points in his last 10 games, and will finish the season above a point per game pace.

Of note; Crosby's shooting percentage is high at 19% (career 14.8%).
He will be 39 years of age when the puck drops on the 2026-27 season, so this could be the last season he finishes at above a point per game pace.

Skinner, while sitting on the bench Saturday, was hit in the head with a puck and did not dress for the Sunday game. Silovs started the back to back weekend games against Florida, going 2-0 and stopping 49 of 55 shots (0.891%).

The free agent goalie market is saturated with experienced veterans like Bobrovsky, Andersen, Quick, and Talbot. This could make Skinner, now 27 years old, one of the highest paid free agent goalies this summer. 

After facing criticism for needing a break, Linus Ullmark started both weekend games against tough opponents Minnesota and Carolina, losing Saturday and winning Sunday. Earlier in the week, Brady Tkachuk hosted dad Keith on the 'Wingmen' podcast where Keith made fun of today's goalies that can't play every game like goalies did in his time.

The Senators have essentially coin flip odds on making the playoffs. They have 5 games remaining: Lightning, Panthers, Islanders, Devils and the Leafs. Reimer may get the last game of the season against his former team if the Senators season is decided by then.

Otherwise barring a physical or mental setback, Ullmark may start all the remaining games, including the back to back road games on April 11 and 12 against the Islanders and the Devils. Ullmark stopped 25 of 28 (0.893%) against the Hurricanes, while B.Tkachuk added a pair of goals. They will lean hard on their $8.25 million a year goalie.

Jack Hughes has been on fire since scoring the gold medal game winning overtime goal. In 19 games post Olympics, he has accumulated a whopping 34 points. Health is always a concern with the injury prone Hughes, but he is one of the best young players in the league.

Since Tom Fitzgerald was named GM in the summer of 2020, the Devils have made only two playoff appearances. Like Yzerman, Fitzgerald could be on the chopping block. The Devil's have not been officially eliminated from the playoffs, but will be in the coming days.

Both Allen and Markstrom are signed for at least another 2 years. Markstrom has had an underwhelming season (-11.9 GSAx) with a 0.885% save percentage. He did shut out the offensively inclined Montreal Canadiens on Sunday night stopping all 18 shots. Only 4 teams have scored more goals than the Habs this season.

With the fantasy playoffs in full swing, here are some key forwards to scoop up - they each have a 4 game week from April 6 to April 12, are currently deployed on their teams top power play unit, and may be available on your waiver wire.

C.Brown - Devils, 18 points in his last 18 games.

J.Marchessault - Predators, 20 points in his last 27 games.

A.Wennberg  - Sharks, 13 points in his last 13 games.

J.DeBrusk - Canucks, 6 points in his last 7 games.

M.Marchment - Blue Jackets, 7 points in his last 6 games.

Good luck!