Monday Morning Ramblings featuring crowded creases, goalies poised for more wins, PDO regression, and power play updates across the league.

Lots of crowded three goalie creases that are evolving, devolving or resolving:

With Kochetkov's season ending surgery, Bussi has jumped to 1A, with F.Andersen being sheltered until his game returns to normal. He did play well in his Saturday start against the Devils (29/30, 0.967%).

Bussi made 15 saves on 16 shots (0.938%) for the easy 9-1 win over the Tkachuk-less, Barkov-less, S.Jones-less Florida Panthers. Bobrovsky only made 26 saves (0.743%), allowing all 9 goals!

I'm going to guess that he texted his fellow Russian and former Columbus teammate Panarin to come to Florida, because earlier that day GM Drury announced that the Rangers will not be offering Panarin a contract extension. Panarin is in control with a full no move clause, so expect the trade return to be underwhelming.

The Oilers had until Saturday to take advantage of Connor Ingram's waiver exempt status so they now have 3 goalies in the crease with Jarry healthy.

Coach Knoblauch has expressed that Jarry will not be overworked as they are being cautious after his return from injury. The Oilers are afraid that Pickard will get claimed if he is sent down.

In their 5 game week, it was Ingram that got 3 starts, and Jarry got 2. Look for a timeshare with Ingram and Jarry getting the majority of looks, until Jarry gets eased into the starters role (or until he gets injured again). Pickard will get tossed a bone here or there, so he shouldnt be rostered at the moment.

The Oilers posted back to back shutotus this weekend: Jarry 31 saves (6-0 win against the Canucks) and Ingram 27 saves (5-0 win against the Blues).

After Tage Thompson 5 point night, the Canadiens decided to send J. Fowler down to the AHL, ending the 3 goalie situation. Since his conditioning stint, Montembault has stopped 116 on 126 shots (0.921%) in 4 games. 

One of the first orders of business for newly minted Sabres GM was to end the three goalie rotations. That was delayed with C.Ellis on IR. He was activated after A.Lyon was injured, further postponing the upcoming resolution as proclaimed by J.Kekalainen.

Lyon was injured on Monday December 29. On January 6th it was announced that his lower body injury would see him miss an additional 7-10 days. We have just passed the higher end of that estimate, so Lyon should be back very soon. He was taking shots in practice on Sunday.

Stolarz (nerve issue) started skating in late December, and took shots before practice on Saturday January 10. He is expected to make his return during the Leafs upcoming 5 game homestand.

D.Hildeby is waiver exempt but he has played well, winning 3 of his last 4 starts, and putting up the best save percentage of all 3 goalies (0.911%), to the point where the Leafs are considering keeping him with the big club. This, along with limited cap space, has spurred Stolarz trade rumours.

L.Ullmark will travel with the Senators on their road trip. J.Reimer signed an 850k contract for this year, and made his debut Sunday night against the Red Wings (30/34, 0.882% in a 4-3 OT loss).

L.Merilainen is waiver exempt, and will likely be sent down after he was unable to grab the role while Ullmark was out. His latest stinker: 13 saves on 19 shots (0.684%). He blew a 5-3 lead against the Canadiens, ending up with a loss in overtime.

This potential crowded crease in Ottawa won't last long. We often hear that goalies are a product of team defense, but the Senators have turned this theory on its head: They rank FIRST in the league in 5v5 expected goals against per 60, but LAST in GSAx (-34.1)!

The Senators are playing great team defense to make things easy for their goalies. They outshot the Habs 30-12 through two periods Saturday night, yet still managed to lose that game 6-5.

Rick Bowness was hired by the Blue Jackets on January 13, that night Jet Greaves got the call in nets and he beat Calgary 5-3.

Does the goaltending shift back to a timeshare? Merzlikins has gotten the next 2 starts under Bowness. After beating the Canucks 4-1, Coach Bowness went back to Merzlikins, who won again 4-3 against the Penguins posting a 0.906% (29/32). Bowness is 3-0 with Columbus.

Since December 1st, Daccord and Grubauer have played in 12 games each. This has turned back into an even split, after Daccord ran away with the starters role last year.

After letting in 9 goals in one game last week, Markstrom was probably on the bench for most fantasy teams, but he got 3 straight starts this week. He nabbed 2 wins (5-2 vs Minnesota and 3-2 vs Seattle), and so Keefe threw him out there against Carolina as well (4-1 loss).

Let's take a look at which goalies can get more wins in the second half of the season. For this exercise we will focus on teams that should be scoring more, or which teams have higher expected goals than actual goals. This can be further broken down into 5v5 and PP (all stats from January 16):

At 5 on 5; 

Devils 78 GF, expected GF 94,57 (-16.57)

Hurricanes 100 GF, expected GF 115.53 (-15.53)

Flames 79 GF, expected GF 93.89 (-14.89)

Kings 76 GF, expected GF 89.56 (-13.56)

Predators 80 GF, expected GF 92.72 (-12.72)

Canucks 77 GF, expected GF 88.61 (-11.61)

Oilers 96 GF, expected GF105.37 (-9.37)

At 5 on 4;

Capitals 20 GF, expected GF27.35 (-7.35)

Flyers 17 GF, expected GF 23.58 (-6.58)

Flames 18 GF, expected GF 24.07 (-6.07)

Avalanche 23 GF, expected GF 28.78 (-5.78)

Mammoth 19 GF, expected GF 24.67 (-5.67)

The Mammoth have the lowest shooting percentage on the power play (10.34%), so their PP personnel should see improvements. 

The only team that makes this list at both 5v5 and 5v4 are the Flames. All those missing goals will help Wolf and Cooley see better win numbers for the rest of the season. The Flames have the second worst 5v5 PDO in the league:

Lowest 5v5 PDO:

Devils 0.972

Flames 0.974

Oilers 0.977

Interesting to note that the Devils and Oilers are having the worst luck at 5v5 but the best luck on the power play:  

Highest power play PDO:

Oilers 1.139

Predators 1.138

Devils 1.118

To end off, we will cover some non-goalie power play developments:

Gavrikov has taken over PP1 duties in New York. He hasn't shown much. 0 points in 5 games, and is a -10. 

Balinskis has been getting PP1 time for Florida. Coach Maurice tried this last year as well but Balinskis time with the top unit was short lived.

Letang is now on PP1 duties with Erik Karlsson on the shelf.

Ryan Greene is getting juicy deployment: top power play time with Bedard to go along with being Bedard's linemate at 5 on 5.

With Draisaitl on leave in Germany for family reasons, it is Jake Walman who is filling in on the top power play unit.

The big move on Sunday, saw Rasmus Andersson traded to Vegas. M.Weegar and H.Brzustewicz are the PP1 candidates in Calgary. That is until Z.Parekh gets recalled from his conditioning stint, then all bets are off. Monitor closely how much offensive leash is given to Parekh. He set the record for most points by a Canadian defenseman at the World Junior Championships.

The Wild have placed both Boldy and Eriksson Ek on IR. The top power play unit on Saturday featured Kaprizov, Q.Hughes, Zuccarello, Tarasenko, and Hartman.

While Marchessault was out, Luke Evangelista was enjoying PP1 time. Evangelista has quietly put up 24 points in his last 27 games. Marchessault has returned to health, so keep an eye out if his seniority is enough to displace Evangelista from the top unit.