Goalies for Conn Smythe

Welcome one, welcome all! We have just one team standing in the Western Conference, as the Vegas Golden Knights have punched their tickets to the Stanley Cup Finals! We are still awaiting the outcome of the Eastern Conference Finals to know their opponent, but for right now the Carolina Hurricanes lead the Montreal Canadiens 2 games to 1 (note that this article was written before game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final, and all stats referenced are taken from beforehand, too).

Last week we talked Vezina trophy candidates, but with just 3 teams left standing, it seems worthwhile to check in on another coveted trophy - the Conn Smythe award, given to the Stanley Cup’s Most Valuable Player. The last goalie to win this award was the last goalie to win a Vezina under the age of 25, Andrei Vasilevskiy (Tampa Bay, 2021). No other goalie has won the award this decade, with Jonathon Quick (Los Angeles, 2012), Tim Thomas (Boston, 2011), and Cam Ward (Carolina, 2006) as the only other goalies that have won the playoff MVP award in the past 20 years. But if we take a look at our 3 remaining goalies, each one of them has a legitimate claim to the award this postseason.

Let’s examine each of the 3 candidates and their respective bids for the Conn Smythe this campaign. For comparison’s sake, Vasilevskiy won the award in 2021 with a 16-7 record, 1.90 GAA, .937 SV%, and posted a shutout in all 4 series clinching victories, finishing his postseason run with 5 SHO total. Now, let’s dive in!

Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes - I, like most fantasy poolies, dropped the Great Dane like a bad habit halfway through the season when his funk stunk too badly to stomach. Luckily for the Hurricanes, his regular season performance (16-14-5, 3.05 GAA, .874 SV%) did NOT carry over to the playoffs, but rather took a decided turn in the opposite direction and he has been a boon for his team through two and a half rounds of playoff action. Freddie has won 10 of his 11 starts, while sporting a healthy .923 SV% and incredible 1.56 GAA, essentially letting in half as many goals per start in the playoffs compared to the regular season. At this point, Freddie has more shut outs (2) than games where he has allowed more than 2 goals (1). Now, Carolina still has to take care of business against Montreal and then keep up their winning ways against a red-hot Vegas club, but if the Hurricanes win their first cup since 2006 then it sure looks like Andersen’s return to grace may be the biggest reason why.

Carolina’s spread out scoring will, also, be a big advantage for Freddie’s bid if the Hurricanes go all the way, as Taylor Hall and Jackson Blake are the only Carolina skaters on pace to finish at a point per game or higher. Still, we shouldn’t sleep on the former regular season MVP, Taylor Hall, whose 13 points in 11 games currently lead all Caniacs.

Jakub Dobes, Montreal Canadiens - While the numbers are still there (9-4-4, 2.50 GAA, .910 SV%), it has been the eye test that has won me over for Jakub Dobes Conn Smythe bid in this playoffs. Few goalies have made more momentum changing saves than Dobes, who has calmly kept the Canadiens in quite a few contests despite getting outshot and, arguably, outplayed. The 24 year old keeper has started every contest for the Canadiens this postseason, and has essentially played every meaningful minute for his club, too. Dobes does lead all goaltenders in saves this postseason with 446 saves on 490 shots against, and he has just 2 Really Bad Starts in 17 games played (11.8%) versus his 10 quality starts (58.8%). With Montreal currently trailing Carolina in the series 2 games to 1, Dobes has his work cut out for him to get his team into a position to play for a Stanley Cup, let alone to add his name to the list of Conn Smythe winning goalies, but this season, and postseason, has proved that we should never count out the Czech keeper.

Should his cinderella story continue, Dobes will still have to fend off his own teammates for the award, as Nick Suzuki (16 points), Lane Hutson (15 points), and Juraj Slavkovsky (12 points) have all played an important role for the Habs postseason run, too.

Carter Hart, Vegas Golden Knights - Hart has cemented himself squarely in the Conn Smythe conversation by running through the playoffs with a 12-4 record. The Golden Knight Keeper has posted an impressive 2.16 GAA and .924 SV% to go along with his 12 Quality Starts in 16 games played. The 27 year old has seemingly only gotten better as the playoffs have gone on, too, most recently sweeping the top seeded Colorado Avalanche in 4 games while allowing just 7 goals in the entire series.

Perhaps the biggest knock against Hart’s bid for the Conn Smythe is that the NHL’s postseason point leader, Mitch Marner, is on the same team as him. Marner’s 21 points currently lead all skaters, while Vegas teammates Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden lead all playoff skaters in goals with 10 apiece. Hart, also, has yet to record a shutout this postseason.

Out of the 3 remaining goalies, Frederik Andersen currently has the best argument for the award. Freddie has a GAA below 2.00, a SV% above .920, a single loss (so far), and he is backstopping a team whose leading scorer (Hall, 13 pts) is tied for 11th in overall postseason scoring. If Carolina can go the distance, Andersen will be in the Conn Smythe conversation. And his regular season stats will stand as a fine reminder to just how unpredictable this wonderful sport can be. Playoff hockey, baby!

That’s all for this week, thanks for reading! My name is Garrett Finlay and you can follow me on X @garrett_fi51284 and on Bluesky @garrettfinlay.bsky.social where I am often talking goalies and fantasy hockey. I’ll be back here next Thursday, so until then - Happy Hockeying and good luck out there!