Eastern Conference Finals Ramblings

The final four teams have locked in their spots. The top seed of each division has advanced to the final 4, the only exception being the Atlantic Division where the 3rd seed Canadiens ousted the 1st seed Sabres in overtime of game 7.

Due to the double sweep of Ottawa and then Philadelphia, many are projecting an easy win for the Hurricanes against a Canadiens team that needed Game 7 twice.

Other than Alex Newhook getting the game winning goal, the other similarity saw the Habs get outshot badly in both game sevens: 29 to 9 against Tampa, and 39 to 25 against Buffalo. This is not a recipe for success, especially against a Carolina team that suppresses shots at an elite level.

All three regular season games between these two teams saw the Hurricanes outshoot the Canadiens.

The Canes allowed the fewest shots on goal all season (1963), no other team allowed less than 2000. That’s not all, Carolina was also impressive in the shots on goal category (2638) ranking 2nd in the league.

The Habs ranked 18th (2282 shots against) and 24th (2157 shots for) respectively in those two categories.

As a result, oddsmakers are significantly favouring the Hurricanes to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals.

During the 2026 playoffs the Hurricanes have the best expected goal differential per 60 (+1.45), while the Canadiens are in the negatives (-0.21)!

That being said, here are eleven reasons why the Canadiens can pull off the upset:

(1) Since the March 6th trade deadline, the Canadiens (5th at 0.705%) have had the (slightly) better winning percentage compared to the Canes (6th at 0.690%). The Canes held up by an overly successful power play hitting at 32.7% since the trade deadline.

Both teams had similar records: 15-6-1 (Habs) and 14-6-1 (Canes) to end the regular season.

(2) Surprisingly, the season series went Montreal’s way in a decisive manner.

The Canadiens won all 3 games in regulation, outscoring the Hurricanes 15 to 8.

Half of Carolina’s eight goals came on the power play. In contrast Montreal went just 1 for 8 on the power play this season against the Hurricanes.

All 3 games were played in 2026, and 2 were hosted in Raleigh.

Side note - If you are in search of playoff pool selections, Sebastian Aho led the way offensively for the Canes with 2 goals and 4 assists. The Habs were led in scoring by Suzuki (3g 2a) Caufield (3g 2a), Slafkovsky (2g 3a), and Hutson (1g 3a).

(3) Although they have had playoff success, winning 11 playoff series’ in the last 8 years, the Hurricanes cant seem put together enough series wins to land them a spot in the finals:

2025: Lost in 5 to the Panthers in the Eastern conference finals.

2024: Lost in 6 to the Rangers in round 2.

2023: Swept by the Panthers in the Eastern conference finals.

2022: Lost in 7 to the Rangers in round 2.

2021: Lost in 5 to the Lightning in round 2.

2020: Lost in 5 to the Bruins in round 1.

2019: Swept by the Bruins in the Eastern conference finals.

(4) Jakub Dobes was given the starter’s role January 27th 2026 and has played the 11th highest minutes amongst all goalies from that date till the end of the regular season.

Since then he has a 75% quality start percentage, second highest in the league of any goalie that has played in over 10 games (Joel Hofer had a 77.8% QS).

Over that span, Dobes' save percentage of 0.915% is significantly better than Freddie Andersen’s 0.882%.

(5) The Hurricanes are rusty, they haven’t played an NHL game for 11 days. How has Andersen fared with 3+ days rest this season? A save percentage of 0.873% and a pedestrian record of 13 wins, 10 losses, and 5 overtime losses. Dobes has posted a 0.919% on games played with one day rest. The Habs-Canes series will be played on alternating days starting on May 21.

(6) Don’t be surprised if band aid boy Frederik Andersen gets injured, I am already surprised he has gone 8 consecutive playoff games without getting dinged up.

Brandon Bussi has been below average since singing his contract. 0.893% in February, 0.859% in March, and 0.876% in April.

(7) Andersen started the two most recent games in March against the Habs, stopping 15 of 18 (0.833%) and 14 of 18 (0.778%). Dobes played all 3 games in the season series stopping a cumulative 95 shots out of the 103 he faced (0.922%) from Carolina.

(8) 7 of the last 8 times a team winning a game 7 played a team that swept their opponent, it was the game 7 victor that won the subsequent series.

(9) The Hurricanes haven’t yet faced a 100+ point team in the playoffs. The Flyers were offensively challenged in the regular season (250 goals for was the worst of any playoff team in the East), and the Senators were offensively challenged in the playoffs (shooting percentage of 4.55%) scoring only 5 goals in 4 games.

(10) Freddie Andersen’s insane 0.950% playoff save percentage is unsustainable and will regress downwards.

(11) 5v5 this season, the goals for and goals against numbers are virtually identical. Carolina had 185 GF and 160 GA, while Montreal had 184 GF and 161 GA. This includes 53 GA at 5v5 on Montembault, who has been banished to the press box. Mo

Dobes needs to continue his strong play to thwart the plethora of shots headed his way. He has shown that it is possible in the 3 game sample size vs Carolina during the regular season.

Regardless a team that signed a contract with Sebastian Aho will be advancing to the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals!