Coffee in the Crease: Slow starts and replacements for this week

This has been a strange season for most netminders not named Andrei Vasilevskiy, Connor Hellebuyck, and maybe more surprising, Carter Hart. There are a few goaltenders out there in fantasy that for one reason or another have gotten off to rocky starts and that’s to say the very least. It’s something we have to touch on here both for fantasy and DFS, so let’s dive in!

Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks (Rostered in 65% of ESPN leagues, 94% Fantrax, 89% Yahoo) 9 starts, 1 win, 2 OTL, 3.91 GA/G, .879 SV%, 0 SO.

Here we are, writing and reading about what is potentially going on with Thatcher Demko, and as someone with him in my primary league, it’s a tough night out every time he’s in the crease.

Out of all the goaltenders that have gotten off to bad starts, I’d say Demko is far and away the worst for a player that was drafted mid-round in a fair number of leagues. This season so far, he has allowed at least three goals in each start, and even in his most recent outing last Saturday versus Nashville, the Canucks were up 3-0 only to allow four unanswered and lose by a final score of 4-3. Is this all on Demko? Well, it very well might be. He has the third worse goals saved above expected at -6.83 and the second worst goals saved average, and has allowed the second most goals against in the league at all strengths this season with 35. I understand the frustration completely as this is a goaltender who had a good fantasy season last year with a 33-22-2 record, but more importantly was a goaltender you could confidently plug and play into your lineup each night.

This week the Canucks play two back-to-backs so it’s likely that Demko and backup goaltender Spencer Martin will split the workload. My advice here is if there’s a better option in net, I think you have to make that change. There’s a decent enough sample size here already that tells me that even if there’s alright stat wise the rest of the season, there’s a chance the time in net is split between both him and Martin. The roster numbers show it as well, as I think it may be time to throw Demko onto waivers for someone else if that’s an option. In fantasy I’ve always said that I’d rather move on from a player two games early than one game late, and I think we’ve all been more than patient with the output Demko has shown so far to roster him going forward.

Jacob Markstrom, Calgary Flames (Rostered in 99% of ESPN leagues, 99% Fantrax, 96% Yahoo) 8 starts, 4 wins, 1 OTL, 2.84 GA/G, .900 SV%, 0 SO.

Marstrom is another goaltender that has been off to a slow start this season, and was also someone likely picked fairly high in drafts for the production he can bring to a lineup and ease knowing he will likely be the regular starter on most nights the Flames play. The roster numbers are still high for him, and I think out of the goaltenders we’ll talk about here, he’s the likely one to turn the season around.

The advanced numbers for Markstrom aren’t really alarming, this could be a case of not really being comfortable either playing the puck and with I think comes reacting late at times. Markstrom has a high rebound attempt against with 34 at even strength which is bottom 10 in the league. I do feel like this is partially the up and down games the Flames have had so far this season; this is a club that has really traded chances each time out. What interests me moving forward here with Markstrom will be the schedule, as the Flames have yet to play outside of Alberta so far this season, until tonight when they faceoff against the Islanders on Long Island.

I think for those with Markstrom on their rosters he’s still a must start on most nights and if you’re in between two goaltenders I think he gives you a good chance to put up solid stats each time out, and at the very least has already gotten you four wins on the season. Head coach Darryl Sutter’s comments on wanted to give backup Dan Vladar a start a week are a little worrisome as far as projecting out the starters each night, but I think we can assume those starts will be designated more for back-to-backs and Sunday slates.

Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh Penguins (Rostered in 94% of ESPN leagues, 99% Fantrax, 95% Yahoo) 8 starts, 4 wins, 1 OTL, 3.38 GA/G, .903 SV%, 0 SO.

Jarry at around the backend of last season really stood out as one of the better goaltenders in the league, which I think if you didn’t have Jarry on your roster or pay close attention to the Pens would surprise you. It seemed like in prior seasons this was a club that would try to get more regular splits starts with Jarry and Casey DeSmith, but for those who took a chance on Jarry last season got solid goaltending on most nights. This season though there has been a regression and it’s starting to take a toll here in fantasy and those who start Jarry in their Pitt powerplay stacks.

Jarry actually got off to a good start this season, allowing two goals or fewer in his first three starts and winning his first four. This also though, had a lot to do with the Pens seemingly running hotter than the sun, with at the time the highest expected goals per 60 minutes and most actual goals in the league. Now though, the story has flipped for Jarry and the Pens as they have gone just 2-6-2 in their last, 10 which is worst in the NHL. Part of this sure, falls on Jarry as fantasy owners have watched him give up six goals versus Edmonton two weeks ago and likewise six goals versus Boston last week, but the most troublesome stat is Jarry’s high danger saves against as he stands tied second worst in that regard. My advice here, this could be a possible spot to maybe make trade if the Pens begin to pick it up here in the near future. The resume just has too many blemishes on it that makes me think that from here on out you’ll get the .919 SV% that you got last season.

Goalies to target this week

Spencer Martin, Vancouver Canucks (Rostered in 1% of ESPN leagues, 13% Fantrax, 3% Yahoo) 3 starts, 2 wins, 1 OTL, 3.27 GA/G, .899 SV%, 0 SO.

As listed above with Demko, Spencer Martin will get two starts this week and could see more next depending on how this week plays out. Martin has gotten three starts in net so far and they have gone, bad, good, and well, bad again. However, he is someone that we know will be in net at the very least twice this week, and my guess would be both Wednesday on the road in Montreal and Sunday on the road in Boston. With those being two “off” days, that does present an option to help get starts in net while your opponent this week may not have anyone starting in net.

Erik Kallgren, Toronto Maple Leafs (Rostered in 6% of ESPN leagues, 30% Fantrax, 32% Yahoo) 4 starts, 1 win, 2 OTL, 2.76 GA/G, .904 SV%, 0 SO.

Did you really think I was going to go this entire blog post without talking about the Leafs? With Matt Murray (groin) and now Ilya Samsonov (knee), out for the time being, Kallgren will be the Leafs primary starter in net here this week. Keep in mind, Murray was slated to be out for at least four weeks, this current week being week three, so there’s a chance that adding Kallgren would be for the next few games and then Murray would take back the role as the primary starter for Toronto.

Kallgren earned his first win of the season in a comeback game versus Carolina on Saturday but not in each of his starts previous before filling in for the injured Samsonov in Saturday’s game, where he allowed at least three goals a game. Toronto will play at home against Vegas tomorrow and will have a back-to-back later this week on Friday and Saturday versus Pittsburgh, and Vancouver, so I would imagine that Kallgren will get the nod versus the Knights and Penguins. That can be a tough task for sure versus a Vegas club with the league’s best record, and a Pittsburgh one that will be throwing ther kitchen sink at the Leafs to get out of the slump that they’re in. One thing that Kallgren brings is the opportunity to earn a win by the team in front of him playing like we know they can, with Toronto’s top two (primarily the Tavares line), playing excellent right now.

For continued fantasy news and notes throughout the season, follow me on Twitter @ndySanz