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Christmas Goalie Thoughts
ByDobber
PublishedDec 26, 2025, 09:00 PM
Read Time4 MIN
By Khurram Sher
Since Carter Hart's return to the NHL, he has been getting a 2:1 ratio of starts over Akira Schmid (11-3-4, 0.896%). Adin Hill is week to week after a poor start (1-0-2) and has a save percentage of 0.888% in a small sample size of 5 games. Hart has a 4-1-2 record and the best save percentage of the three (0.904%), however both Schmid (+0.141) and Hill (+0.124) are quite similar in terms of GSAx/60 ranking 48th and 49th among all 84 goalies that have played this season. If you want to follow the money, it is Adin Hill that has the heftiest contract: He is in the 1st year of a 6 year contract ($6.25M/year). He ranks 63rd in GSAx/60 (-0.055). Neither of these three goalies are waiver exempt, so it will be interesting to see what happens when A.Hill is back from his injury. The most likely casualty will be Akira Schmid. Vegas might try to sneak him down to the minors but he only makes 875k for one year then he is an RFA, making him a prime candidate to be claimed by another team.
If you were concerned about Montreal's PP1 deployment when you saw Noah Dobson assisting on two power play goals against Boston, let me reassure the Lane Hutson owners. Both those goals were scored on 5 on 3 power plays. In this scenario, the Canadiens alter the personnel a little bit with Noah Dobson manning the point instead of Lane Hutson. It was a 2-2 game until Coach Sturm's questionable goalie interference challenge on the 3rd Habs goal. That led to a Canadiens power play and further undisciplined play by the Bruins gifted the Habs a 5 on 3 power play. The floodgates opened with a couple of 5 on 3 PP goals, culminating in a decisive 6-2 Montreal victory last Tuesday. In total power play time Hutson (6:23) still edged Dobson (5:26), but Marty St.Louis likes to get Dobson out there for his big shot on the 5 on 3 power play.
You also might have noticed that Weegar didn't get any PP2 in the Tuesday game vs Edmonton where McDavid tallied 5 assists (12th time in his career he has had a 5 point game) in a 5-1 Oilers win. Leon Draisiatl had one of the easiest (least effort required) hat tricks where he sat around and buried the goals after McDavid did all the work. Rasmus Andersson had 3:54 of PP1 time, and Hunter Brzustewicz had 3:10 of PP2 time. Although he scored the lone Calgary goal, Weegar totalled 0:00 on the power play, and 9:05 in all. The reason was not injury, but rather an ejection midway through the game for unsportsmanlike conduct (hitting the stick out of D.Nurse's hand after the whistle) and a game misconduct (banging his stick repeatedly on the penalty box glass).
With Tie Domi in the stands, son Max went coast to coast, deking out B.Kulak and then wiring one past S.Skinner for a highlight reel goal. His first goal in 24 games. Domi once scored 72 points in 82 games for the Montreal Canadiens, but that seems like a lifetime ago, as he has produced his lowest points per game this season (0.41 ppg), and is rumoured to be available as the Leafs try to shed salary to make a big move. M.Domi is only rosterable in the deepest of leagues and even then probably alternates between the waiver wire and as a fringe replacement on fantasy teams. W. Nylander awakened with 4 points in this game, after going the previous ten games with 4 points in all. Nylander now has 40 pts in 32 games, boasting a career best 1.25 ppg. However, his shooting percentage is high at 19.4%, (1.46 times higher than his career average). Some regression is expected as his 5 on 5 shooting percentage (16.2%) is also high (approximately 1.8 times higher than what his average 5 on 5 shooting percentage was in the previous 6 years). Nylander's IPP is also 80%, the highest it has ever been in his career.
What to do with Dougie Hamilton? He has been one of the biggest disappointments on the back end this season, slowly being outmuscled from PP1 deployment by Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. He has been in trade rumours since the summer, including ‘at least one – and possibly two – vetoed trades’ during the Quinn Hughes sweepstakes. Hamilton owns a ten team trade list and Elliotte Friedman adds ‘I suspect that if they want to move Dougie Hamilton, it will have to be to one of the 10 teams on his list. If not, forget it’. If these ten teams already have a PP1 quarterback then hopes will be dashed for a Hamilton value revival post-trade. His shooting percentage and 5v5 shooting percentage are both below 5%. His 0.24 points per game are the lowest of his career. 3 years ago on the Devils, he put up the best points per game of his career (0.90). Overall he is seeing less than 50% of PP time, as Sheldon Keefe will often rotate the PP1 defenseman on a game by game basis. Due to Hamilton’s $9M contract and a small 10 team trade list (aka a 21 team NTC), look for the return to be minimal for the Devils. The teams rumoured to be looking for a top pair RHD include the Detroit Red Wings, the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the St. Louis Blues. If he does get dealt to any of these teams he would likely get a spot on the top power play, however if his ten team trade list includes popular no tax destinations like Florida (Seth Jones), Vegas (5 forward power play), Dallas (Heiskanen), Tampa (Hedman), and Nashville (Josi) I don't envision immediate PP1 deployment.
An interesting tidbit on Frederik Andersen's modified no trade clause. The 20 team NTC reduces to 5 on Feb. 23 if he doesn't play in one third of games by Feb.15. Thus far he has played in 15 of 36 games (41.6%), but his appearances are dwindling. He has only taken part in 2 of 11 December games for the Hurricanes. The more accurate cutoff is Feb.5, because that is Carolina's last game before the Olympic break. The Hurricanes have 21 more games up to and including their Feb.5 tilt vs the Rangers. This means that as long as he plays in more than 4 of the next 21 games, his NTC should remain at 20 teams. Schedule alert: The Hurricanes have a rare 5 game week from Monday Dec.29 to Sunday Jan.4. Streaming in players like T.Hall (0.47 ppg) and J.Staal (0.48 ppg), should theoretically provide you with the production equivalent of a 0.78-0.80 ppg player with a 3 game week (simple function of multiplying by 5 and dividing by 3).
- Khurram Sher