Biggest risk/reward goalies this season

Every draft pick you make in fantasy hockey comes with some level of risk and upside. With goalies, though, the gamble is ramped up, as the position and specific goaltenders have so much variance from year-to-year. There’s also a lot riding on the how the team in front of them performs.

Here are some goalies that will have major risk/reward opportunity in 2022-23:

Ilya Samsonov – Toronto Maple Leafs

Samsonov’s inconsistency issues and the fact that he’s probably a 1B now will push him down draft boards, but he’s actually landed in a very favourable spot for a bounce back season. The Leafs are likely going to cruise to another 100-point season, so wins should be easy to come by. Plus, goalie partner Matt Murray has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and has battled consistency issues of his own, so it wouldn’t be too far fetched to envision a scenario where Samsonov actually gets the bulk of the work this year. If that happens, he’ll be a steal, but if he can’t find his game and Murray avoids injury, Samsonov will have minimal value. Buyer beware.

Matt Murray – Toronto Maple Leafs

And then there’s Murray. The 28-year-old was outstanding the final two months of last season before being lost with an injury, giving fantasy GMs hope that’s the goalie they’ll be getting in 2022-23. Murray’s challenge, though, is that he just can’t seem to avoid the injury bug to put an entire season together. If he misses significant time once again, he’ll have little value, but if he can stay between the pipes Murray will be a major asset on a top team. Toronto’s goaltending situation is completely unpredictable this year.

Vitek Vanecek – New Jersey Devils

Vanecek’s value this year really depends on how much of a step forward the Devils can take. On the surface, leaving the Washington Capitals for New Jersey doesn’t seem ideal, but the Devils have the young talent to finally start contending for a playoff position again. Whether that happens or not remains to be seen, as predicting the trajectory of a young team isn’t easy.

Given the contract the Devils handed Vanecek, it appears he’ll get a chance to run with job over Mackenzie Blackwood and perhaps get more playing time than he did in Washington. If Vanecek can maintain his career save percentage of .908 and get the bulk of the starts on a team that’s winning more, he could be a late-round gem.

Anton Forsberg – Ottawa Senators

No one was more consistent in the second half of last season than Forsberg, recording a save percentage of .900 or better in 32 of his final 40 games. Cam Talbot has arrived in Ottawa, though, making it much more difficult for Forsberg to play with regularity. That said, if Forsberg can continue his play from last year and the offseason additions help the Sens jump up the standings, it’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t be a significant asset to your squad.

Much like the aforementioned Devils, though, there’s no guarantee Ottawa improves by leaps and bounds, meaning Forsberg could end up playing less on a mediocre team if he can’t outduel Talbot. I’d still bet on Forsberg having at least close to the same value he had last year, but drafting him will certainly come with risks.

Cal Petersen – Los Angeles Kings

Petersen is nearly 10 years younger than Quick, but the veteran earned the larger share of the playing time last year after he vastly outplayed his counterpart. It was a major disappointment for Petersen owners, as the Kings took a big step forward and became a playoff team once again, meaning Petersen could’ve had tremendous value if he was able to post more respectable numbers. At some point you’d think Petersen would be able step up and claim the job, though that appears to be easier said than done as Quick is having a late-career renaissance. If Quick is able to fend him off for another season, it’s going to be tough to justify drafting Petersen in one-year leagues.

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