Pascal Leclaire - The Numbers

By: | Mar 11th 2009, 11:01pm EDT

"Pascal Leclaire is the greatest goaltender that the Ottawa Senators have ever had" - Pierre McGuire

Pascal Leclaire
Photo by Mark Mauno
Used by Permission

James Duthie proceeded to bring up Dominik Hasek and made Pierre McGuire look like a fool, was trade day that slow? Well it was, but this is typical Pierre McGuire. He is loud, bombastic and obnoxious. He makes his living making strong statements. McGuire has a wide base of knowledge and my only problem with him is that he rarely admits when one of his outlandish predictions is false. I don't expect a retraction on his latest prognostication.

I understand that the Sens have had difficulty in goal, but really? If you are going to judge a goaltender based on numbers alone, then this is way off.

What is he basing that statement on? On scouting reports? On his goaltending analysis? He is the guy who lambasted Cristobal Huet in 2006 claiming the NHL had figured him out. Since then Huet is 69-43-12 with a 2.50 GAA and a .917 SV%.

My assumption is he is basing his analysis on Leclaire's one good NHL season? The one where Scott Howson got suckered and handed out a $4M per year contract, then promptly traded him away at the first opportunity?

Let's ignore the Hasek year, is Leclaire really head and shoulders above Patrick Lalime, Ron Tugnutt, Damian Rhoades, Tom Barrasso and Ray Emery? Seeing as Leclaire has had one good season in his career let's take a look and compare the numbers of each goaltender's peak season.

Since winning percentage is relative to strength of team I will ignore it in regards to this comparison.

In order to even out the numbers in regards to the different era's, I took the highest scoring season (2007 - 2.95 goals per game) and adjusted all the numbers towards that.

Using these numbers Pascal Leclaire stacks up fairly evenly with past Senators netminders. But does that prove Leclaire is greater than any other Senators goaltender?

In his career season he trails journeyman Ron Tugnutt and matches up favourably to Ottawa whipping boys Ray Emery and Patrick Lalime. With no other notable seasons in Leclaire's career, these stats make it difficult to prove McGuire's assertion correct.

So I decided to look at his career numbers and see if he was able to rise above the system, at any point in his career was he able to outdistance his goaltending partners, what outside of hyperbole would make Pierre McGuire scream this numerous times during deadline day.

Leclaire enjoyed a successful QMJHL debut as he was the 6th ranked goaltender during the 1999 season. But was that Leclaire? Or a result of a powerful Mooseheads team lead by Ladislav Nagy and Alex Tanguay? The Mooseheads were more successful with Alexei Volkov between the pipes and had a marked improvement without Leclaire in goal.

In Leclaire's sophomore season he dropped to 16th in efficiency, behind future NHL goaltender's Maxime Ouellet, Sébastion Caron, Dany Sabourin and former Leaf great Sébastien Centomo. Once again he trailed teammate Alexei Volkov as both of their stats regressed as the Moosehead suffered the departures of Tanguay and Nagy. Leclaire still had not offered any separation between himself and future KHL journeyman Volkov.

Leclaire's progress stalled in his third season as he once again finished 16th in efficiency and was outshone by his goaltending partners again. With Volkov gone Leclaire was upstaged by Danny Dallaire and Yann Collin. Leclaire had yet to distance himself from his team performance, as Halifax descended, so did Leclaire. Sound familiar?

In Leclaire's final season with the bottom feeding Rocket he was able to improve his efficiency ranking to 13th but once again proved inefficient in differentiating himself from future washout Jonathan Cayer. Four seasons in the QMJHL, in all four seasons he was unable to outperform his partner in any season and the Blue Jackets decided to use the 8th overall pick on him in the 2001 Draft. You had to love the Quebec goaltending revolution, in it's heyday it involved GMs diving headlong into the QMJHL looking for the next Patrick Roy, talent or not. Sounds a little like the Finnish invasion right now.

With Leclaire turning pro the Jackets had their fingers crossed that they had not blown the number 8 pick. Funny how Doug Maclean talks endlessly about his Steve Mason selection, but never mentions that he wasted the number 8 pick on Leclaire in 2001. Leclaire's debut was a disaster as the trio of Karl Goehring, JF Labbe and Mike Walsh made the first rounder look like a wasted pick.

Leclaire significantly improved upon his rookie season, but with those numbers in 2003, anything would be considered a marked improvement. His career arc continues as Leclaire cannot outdistance himself from Karl Goehring and Fred Brathwaite. I love Brathwaite's heart, but he gave everything he had to be an NHL backup. Six seasons and Leclaire had yet to outperform one of his partners and his team suffered zero dropoff with his absence. I wonder if any of these stats were included in Pierre McGuire's assessment?

Leclaire significantly improved upon his rookie season, but with those numbers in 2003, anything would be considered a marked improvement. His career arc continues as Leclaire cannot outdistance himself from Karl Goehring and Fred Brathwaite. I love Brathwaite's heart, but he gave everything he had to be an NHL backup. Six seasons and Leclaire had yet to outperform one of his partners and his team suffered zero dropoff with his absence. I wonder if any of these stats were included in Pierre McGuire's assessment?

2005 was Leclaire's breakout year. Well, if being injured and playing 14 games is a breakout season. For the first time in his career Leclaire registered better statistics than his stablemate, but the season contains a monster asterisk as he only played 14 games. At this point Leclaire has struggled to produce better statistics than Alexei Volkov, Danny Dallaire, Jonathan Cayer, Karl Goehring and Fred Braithwaite.

In 2006, Leclaire received the call to the NHL. Question, if he was not the 8th pick overall would he have been anywhere near Columbus in 2006? Leclaire's debut marginally outdistanced the immortal tandem of Martin Prusek and Marc Denis (a former overrated Quebecois washout). At this point Doug Maclean was probably blaming this pick on head coach Dave King.

With the Jackets dealing Marc Denis the starting goaltending job was handed to Leclaire. Once again a GM pushing a goaltender because of his own mistake. With an NHL starting opportunity handed to him Leclaire got injured, with Leclaire on the sidelines Fredrik Norrena became the starter and lead the Jackets to a .500 record, with Leclaire between the pipes Columbus struggled along at a .304 winning percentage. But their was light at the end of the tunnel as Ken Hitchcock arrived with defensive system in hand.

The breakout. During 2008 Pascal Leclaire finally justified his 8th overall selection. With nine shutouts Leclaire ascended to an 8th place finish in goaltending efficiency and took the fantasy world by storm. During a contract year Leclaire enjoyed the greatest season of his hockey career. He stayed healthy and finally fulfilled his potential. The Jackets fell all over themselves to sign him to a $4M contract and lock up their franchise goaltender. I am sure Ken Hitchcock's fingerprints were not on this turnaround.

With monster contract in tow and fantasy owners latching on to his 2008 breakout season Leclaire got injured....again. With Leclaire out for the season the Jackets summoned Steve Mason from the minors and Scott Howson spent the next 3 months trying to figure out a way to unload Leclaire. Howson finally found a sucker...I mean trading partner in the Senators.

Pierre McGuire and Sens fan can drink the Kool-Aid if they like, but McGuire who relies on his expert scouting should follow the scouts advice of "never begin with the end in mind". When a player has proven to be injury prone and over 11 seasons has been successful in only one, then the trend suggests that the ten seasons are the norm, not the other way around. The Sens have not solved their goaltending problem, they have inherited another $4M albatross to replace Martin Gerber. If Clouston manages to implement a strong defensive system Leclaire's numbers may be artificially propped up, but don't expect him to earn the starting job on merit. He is NOT better than Patrick Lalime, Ray Emery and Ron Tugnutt and the Sens fans can look forward to more sporadic goaltending. If you want to hope for the best, pray that Brian Elliott is the real deal, because the odds of it being Pascal Leclaire are slim.

So Pierre McGuire can scream at the top of his lungs all he likes, it does not make his assessment correct.

So in honour of Pierre McGuire. "PASCAL LECLAIRE IS NOT THE GREATEST GOALTENDER THAT THE OTTAWA SENATORS HAVE EVER HAD!" - Chris Boyle

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Posted By: JC @ 5:39am EDT, Mar 12th 2009 -- Flag Comment
Much has been made on this site of the effect on goalie stats of certain coaches (i.e. Hitchcock, Julien, Lemaire, various NJD coaches) and their defensive systems. This article showcases one of several data sets that support the theory that the system is more responsible for the stats than the identity of the goalie. Recently, I have begun wondering about the opposite side of this spectrum, especially after seeing some Caps fans comment that Boudreau's system "hangs goalies out to dry", supposedly leaving them to face a larger-than-average number of breakaways and odd-man rushes. Granted, the bad teams are always going to be porous defensively like that, but in this case we have teams at the top of the standings despite being in the bottom half (Caps), or even bottom third (Flames, this year's Wings), of the league in GAA.

How much evidence is there for this sort of "system effect", and who are the key coaches (besides Boudreau) involved in it? Knowing this ahead of time would tell you what to expect from any goalie playing for those coaches as long as they have sufficient offensive talent: lots of wins, but also lots of damage to ratios, (as you get with Theodore this year) unless the goalie himself is truly elite, which doesn't happen very often. Does John Stevens fit in this category also? Is the fact that the Panthers are consistently allowing 40 shots per game just because they lack talent defensively, or is it a result of whatever system Peter DeBoer is using? I'll research this some myself if I have time, but I'd also be very interested to hear any observations others have made on the subject.
Posted By: Jerome @ 9:17am EDT, Mar 12th 2009 -- Flag Comment
I though I was the only one thinking that Leclaire was overestimated because he had ONE good season.
The Senators will find out very quickly that they still have their goalie problem.

Good analysis Chris
Posted By: Craig @ 10:42am EDT, Mar 13th 2009 -- Flag Comment
Would it have been better (possible/realistic ?) to go for Harding instead?
Posted By: Chris Boyle @ 11:00am EDT, Mar 13th 2009 -- Flag Comment
My guess is that with the WIld signing Backstrom so late that Harding was never in play. Leclaire has likely been on the market for months.

Plus, you are making the assumption that Bryan Murray is an astute GM :)
Posted By: Scott @ 11:27am EDT, Mar 13th 2009 -- Flag Comment
I think Chris is loud, bombastic and obnoxious.

He did make well researched and fair points. Ones that are obvious based on the horrific argument presented by Pierre McGuire, but well researched and fair none the less.
Posted By: Blaine Moen @ 11:32am EDT, Mar 13th 2009 -- Flag Comment
I must say that I'm really surprised at the lack of respect that Brian Elliot gets from everyone, including his own team, coaches and management.

11-4-3 with 2.67 GGA and a .908 save percentage on a bad team. Those numbers don't look to me like they require another starter for next season? Do they to you? He was drafted in the 9th round..that must be the problem he's not supposed to be good enough.

The Sens have said that they've never had a goalie since Hasek left....that may be true, but maybe their goaltending issues have more to do with the OTHER players on the ice?

I hear the media saying that "There's no way Elliot can be the starter next season". Really? OK, so apparently the only way you make the NHL is to be highly scouted, drafted in the first round, very visible you know, the "traditional route". God knows that you cant allow a relatively unknown player to make it, that would just make all the "hockey people" look like they don't know what their doing.

Well, how about this Sens management, how about we look at the Stanley Cup Champions the Detroit Red Wings.

Pavel Datsyuk 6th Round 171 overall
Chris Draper 3rd Round 62 overall
Valtteri Filppula 3rd Round 95 overall
Henrik Zetterberg 7th Round 210 overall
Johan Franzen 3rd Round 97 overall
Jiri Hudler 2nd Round 58 overall
Tomas Kopecky 2nd Round 38 overall
Dan Cleary 1st Round 13 overall
Thomas Holmstrom 10th Round 257 overall
Marion Hossa 1st Round 12 overall
Kirk Maltby 3rd Round 65 overall
Mikael Samuelsson 5th Round 145 overall
Chris Chelios 2nd Round 40 overall
Jonathan Ericsson 9th Round 291 overall
Niklas Kronwall 1st Round 29 overall
Brett Lebda Undrafted Undrafted
Nick Lidstrom 3rd Round 53 overall
Andreas Lilja 2nd Round 54 overall
Derrick Meetch 7th Round 229 overall
Brian Rafalski Undrafted Undrafted
Brad Stuart 1st Round 3 overall
Ty Conklin Undrafted Undrafted
Chris Osgood 3rd Round 54 overall

3 undrafted players, all good solid NHLer's and 15 players taken AFTER the second round.

Hmmmm, seems to me that the "hockey guys" in Central Scouting may not know everything after all.

Seems to me that the traditional "media" may not know everything either.

Hey, does that mean that Grapes is wrong?

Common now don't be silly, these guys NEVER miss hockey talent, do they????
Posted By: Chris Boyle @ 3:20pm EDT, Mar 13th 2009 -- Flag Comment
Thank you Scott
Posted By: Brad @ 1:13am EDT, Mar 14th 2009 -- Flag Comment
I agree with Chris more on the McGuire statement than the Leclaire article. I finally realized what an arse McGuire was while watching the world juniors. I was appalled by his scathing criticism of these boys who were playing their hearts out at the juniors. On the Leclaire issue, if he gets decent help at the blue line and can beat the injury bug, he will be successful with any team. That's a lot of 'ifs' but I think the Sens will be a better team with him in their arsenal such as it is.
Posted By: Brian @ 12:41pm EDT, Mar 14th 2009 -- Flag Comment
Chris you complain that McGuire is jumping the gun making outlandish predictions then you pretty much assume that leclaire is a bust like gerber. this goalie has not played yet for the sens you dont know if he is going to be good or not. Stats are not always accurate even especially since he is still a young goalie and he may turn out to be a gem. you are a hypocrite for complaining of Mcguire praising him and you complete assume he is horrible. and for a stats why dont you look at all of the goalies in ottawa instead of taking the best years they had for all you know leclaires best years are to come
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